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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd